China Trade Surplus April 2011

Trade surplus reached US$11.4 billion, substantially higher than forecast.  Will add more pressure on Chinese Yuan appreciation, although that’s uncertain if that helps. Imports from Asia actually dropped quite a bit, especially from Japan.  Imports from the US also dropped, yet imports from the Euro area actually rose.  So interestingly, US trade isn’t the biggest … Continue reading

China Now Looks Like The US Before Great Depression

To supply foreign countries with the dollars needed to purchase American exports, the United States government decided, not sensibly to lower tariffs, but instead to promote cheap money at home, thus stimulating foreign borrowing and checking the gold inflow from abroad. Consequently, the resumption of American inflation on a grand scale in 1924 set off … Continue reading

Chinese Rich Folks Are Leaving The Country

Via Also sprach Analyst: Bain & Co and China Merchant’s Bank Private Wealth Report 2011 found that the so-called high net worth individuals rose 19% in 2010 compared to 2009.  Sadly, 60% of them are considering emigration or are already doing so, and 27% of those with 100 million yuan have already emigrated, and 47% of … Continue reading

China’s Inflation To Stay At 5% Or Above

People’s Daily Online reported that the economist at UBS expects inflation to stay at 5% or more in the second quarter.  There is very little surprise, of course, because money supply growth is still hot, and that’s what caused inflation to stay really high. This is hardly a news really.  China will likely to continue … Continue reading

Why I Am Sick Of Shaun Rein?

This is a question that I do not understand. Who is he? Yesterday he challenged Nouriel Roubini’s idea that China will  face hard landing.  Shuan Rein, who seems to know a lot about China but does not know a thing, suggested that it was Nouriel Roubini who does not know a thing. Why I am … Continue reading

EIU is optimistic about China Real Estate

EIU has an optimistic call on China real estate. Despite being more well-housed that it predicts at its income level, the EIU expects any correction of the property market will only be short-lived because the big trend of urbanisation will be intact, and income growth will be strong for the next decade or so. This … Continue reading

Short China, Will You?

Bearish blogger at Also sprach Analyst proposed that we should short China.  He believes that China has bubbles in residential and commercial real estates.  Infrastructure booms, local government debts, demographics and other reasons are also key to his bearish assessment of Chinese economy. The recent debates surrounding China almost always spark huge interests, with both … Continue reading